Abstract
Socio-hydrology supports the notion that our water system and its hydrological processes is intertwined with our societal system. A particular feature of coupled human-flood systems is that they are inherently complex, characterized by non-linerarities, feedback, thresholds, and heterogeneity. The novelty of the socio-hydrology discourse lies in its recognition that such coupled feedback constantly changes over time and space. This presentation discusses recent advancements in socio hydrology and natural hazard risk assessment models. The demand for reliable risk information is increasing using risk assessment methods. Most risk models use scenario based methods to simulate changes in hazard and exposure. However, they assume that vulnerability of people and assets remains constant across time and space, as though individuals and other stakeholders do not adapt, learn from hazard experiences, or prepare for an event based on risk information or early warning. Therefore, vulnerability in risk assessment is often addressed as an external variable. This presentation shows, however, that there is a constant dynamic between the natural system (hydrology, climate, geology) and society, and how people adapt to hazards over time, and thus how behavior influences vulnerability, and vice versa. This perspective has sparked novel socio-hydrological research linking methods from the domain of behavioural sciences to natural sciences modelling. An example are agent based models (ABMs), and this presentation will address the recent advances and challenges in applying ABMs in both flood risk management, and to couple ABMs to hydrological models.
Bio
Dr. Jeroen Aerts is the head of the Water and Climate risk department at the VU University Amsterdam in the Netherlands, having an internationally leading position in the field of water risk modeling. With a B.Sc. in physical geography and a Ph.D. in hydrology and operations research, conducted at the University of Amsterdam, and as a visiting scientist at the University of California, Santa Barbara, Dr. Aerts has been active in water- and climate-related risk for over 30 years, including as strategic adviser at the Deltares institute, the Netherlands. Dr Aerts pioneered modeling approaches coupling physical climate–water models with human behavioral methods, integrating multidisciplinary methods from hydrology and (behavioral) economics. Dr Aerts co-initiated the first large-scale climate adaptation research program in the Netherlands (Klimaat voor Ruimte, 110 million euros); was the scientific coordinator of the Connecting Delta Cities initiative under the Clinton C40 global cities network; coauthored the OECD report on water security; was a member of the evaluation committee of the National Flood Insurance Program of the U.S. National Research Council; was adviser to Mayor Michael Bloomberg of New York City on flood risk resilience issues, before and in the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy; and designed a climate adaptation plan for the city of Los Angeles to reduce the effects from sea level rise. His scientific work includes 243 peer-reviewed papers, including 22 in high-impact journals. His research was recognized by winning the AGU Gilbert White natural hazard award; Humboldt Award 2021; two prestigious personal grants (NWO-VICI 1.5 million euros; ERC-advanced 2.5 million euros); best paper awards of the Journal of Risk Analysis and the Journal of Flood Risk Management in 2016; and the Lloyd’s Science of Risk Prize in 2014 for his paper on flood risk in New York City, published in Science
