Research Seminars @ Illinois

The upcoming Vera C. Rubin Observatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) is expected to discover nearly a million Type Ia supernovae (SNeIa), offering an unprecedented opportunity to constrain dark energy. The vast majority of these events will lack spectroscopic classification and redshifts, necessitating a fully photometric approach to maximize cosmology constraining power. We present detailed simulations based on the Extended LSST Astronomical Time-Series Classification Challenge (ELAsTiCC), and a cosmological analysis using photometrically classified SNeIa with host galaxy photometric redshifts. This dataset features realistic multiband light curves, non-SNIa contamination, host misassociations, and transient-host correlations across the high-redshift Deep Drilling Fields (DDF; ~50 deg^2). We also include a spectroscopically confirmed low-redshift sample based on the Wide Fast Deep (WFD) fields. We employ a joint SN+host photometric redshift fit, a neural network-based photometric classifier (SCONE), and BEAMS with Bias Corrections (BBC) methodology to construct a bias-corrected Hubble diagram. We produce statistical + systematic covariance matrices, and perform cosmology fitting with a prior using cosmic microwave background constraints. We fit and present results for the wCDM dark energy model, and the more general Chevallier-Polarski-Linder (CPL) w0wa model. With a simulated sample of ~6,000 events, we achieve a figure of merit (FOM) value of about 150, which is significantly larger than the DESVYR FOM of 54. Averaging analysis results over 25 independent samples, we find small but significant biases indicating a need for further analysis testing and development.