Abstract
This paper uses simulation with counterfactual scenarios to examine the impact of transportation disruptions on the U.S. agricultural and food trade system with the following three primary objectives. First, it estimates the relationship between transportation segment disruptions and trade flows of agricultural and food commodities using an econometric gravity model. Second, it identifies critical road segments whose disruption would significantly impact domestic trade and national welfare. Lastly, the study extends its analysis to the state level instead of the segment level in order to measure the consequences of disrupting all road access from/to a state. The findings offer valuable insights on agrifood transportation disruption mitigation as seen in 2022 when the level of the Mississippi River dropped significantly and currently in 2024 Gatun Lake for the Panama Canal, or an unexpected huge accident as Baltimore’s Key Bridge Collapse in 2024.