Enhancing Food Security in Zambia: Infrastructure Development for Supply Chain Adaptation to Shocks
Advisor: Associate Professor Megan Konar
Location: https://illinois.zoom.us/j/89930355535?pwd=urq19G8A3kkPk2Gi3c5TyptEghhoqD.1
Abstract
Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) suffers from high food insecurity due in part to its predominantly rain-fed agriculture and lack of infrastructure. Improving infrastructure, particularly transportation and irrigation, can enhance resilience to shocks. However, the lack of high-resolution data on national food supply chains hinders targeted productivity and infrastructure improvements.
This dissertation quantifies all aspects of food supply chains in Zambia, including agri-food demand, supply, and flows. First, I begin with a historical analysis of the agri-food system in Zambia to determine how different levels of urbanization impact the expenditure and price elasticity of food and nutrition demand; how current and historical climate shock impact the crop diversification choices at the household- and district- level; and how district-level maize and cassava trade flows reach equilibrium to provide insights into public and private trading dynamics, consumer behavior, and storage decisions in Zambia. By examining empirical food production and consumption patterns and their telecoupled relationship in Zambia, I establish the foundation to forecast urban and rural food reliability in Zambia by 2050, evaluating future food security stresses. This projection leverages several products of high-resolution remote sensing data to overcome data limitation in Zambia, helping to anticipate rising food demand, increased climate shocks, and other evolving risks. Food requirements and supply are predicted and mapped in calories units at the rural-urban subnational level so that locations with potential resource shortages and critical failure potential are identified between steady states under climate shocks. I then explore potential solutions to food insecurity, such as crop expansion and intensification, while assessing the suitability of irrigation and transportation infrastructure improvements.
This dissertation provides insights into the dynamics of past and present food supply chains and explores opportunities to optimize future agricultural production and infrastructure investments to enhance food security in Zambia. A comprehensive, high-resolution database on Zambia's food security is developed, capturing the full suite of processes within the food supply chain. The findings enable policymakers and stakeholders to make more informed decisions, strengthen food systems, and better prepare for the uncertainties that lie ahead