Urbana Campus Research Calendar (OVCRI)

View Full Calendar

Speakers Daniel Wilson and Sylvain Leduc - Climate Change and The Geography of the U.S. Economy

Event Type
Sponsors - Program in Environmental and Resource Economics (PERE) and Climate, Regional, Environmental, and Trade Economics (CREATE)
Mumford Hall 426-428
wifi event
Apr 1, 2024   12:00 - 1:00 pm  
Daniel Wilson and Sylvain Leduc, Economic Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Originating Calendar
ACE Seminars

This paper examines how the spatial distribution of people and jobs in the United States
 has been and will be impacted by climate change. Using county-level weather data from 1951
to 2020, we estimate the longer-run effects of weather on local population, employment, wages,
 and house prices using a panel distributed lag model. The historical results point to long-lasting
negative effects of extreme temperature on each of these outcomes. We highlight that a long
lag structure is necessary to appropriately capture the longer-run effects of climate change,
as short-run effects are often small and imprecisely estimated. Using county-level weather
 projections based on alternative greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, we use the estimated
 models to project the spatial distribution of these local economic outcomes out to 2050. The
 results point to substantial reallocations of people and jobs across the country over the next
 three decades, with mobility increasing by between 33 and 100 percent depending on the
 scenario. Population and employment are projected to shift away from the Sunbelt and toward
 the North and Mountain West. We document that this would, in fact, be a continuation of a
 historical pattern: Over the past four decades the relationship between population growth and
 hot climates across the United States has turned from strongly positive to slightly negative.
 We present a spatial equilibrium model to interpret the results, highlighting the impacts of
 climate change on amenities, productivity, and the disutility of labor.

Link: Zoom 
Meeting ID: 896 9608 6462
Password: CREATE
If the above button is not clickable, try copying and pasting the following link into the address bar of your web browser: https://illinois.zoom.us/j/89696086462?pwd=YkU3dzdtUEZ1WUJydEpISHJEcTNlZz09 


link for robots only