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Climate Change and Crop Choice: Evidence From a Global Panel

Event Type
Program in Environmental & Resource Economics (pERE)
426 Mumford Hall
Sep 11, 2023   12:00 - 1:00 pm  
Andrew Hultgren, Assistant Professor, Illinois Dept ACE
Originating Calendar
ACE Seminars

Andrew Hultgren, Assistant Professor, Illinois Dept ACE - https://ace.illinois.edu/directory/ahultgr

[Early-stage work, sort of] We examine how farmers adjust the land they allocate to crops when climatic conditions change. We analyze subnational longitudinal data for six globally important crops from many of the world's major agricultural regions: the North and South America, South and Southeast Asia, Oceania, Europe, and Sub-Saharan Africa. We find that more land is allocated to producing a specific crop when the climatological conditions for growing that crop improve, although the timescales for these adjustments are long, on the order of 10 years. Decomposing the weather-induced yield signal into its high-frequency and low-frequency components, we find the land use response is generally driven by farmers' response to the low-frequency yield signal, reinforcing the relevance of our estimates to the question of land-use under climate change. These estimates may have important implications for the transitional dynamics of global food security under climate change.

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