Abstract
Currently, reservoir operation researchers and decision-makers weigh the trade-off between water conservation and flood control at the event and seasonal scales. However, socio-economic pressures on reservoir operation in the distant future can be shaped by present infrastructure development and operational decisions, thus warranting their inclusion for present decision analysis. Here, we explore the particular case of feedback between reservoir operation and downstream floodplain development by modifying and uniting mathematical frameworks which had previously been isolated. Compared to existing studies of floodplain settlement, this study addresses the novel complication that increased flood protection via changes to reservoir operation comes at the expense of water conservation. We show that as time goes on under a status quo operating policy (i.e. maximizing expected benefits at the event-to-seasonal-scale) (1) systems evolve toward highly developed floodplains and high operational preference for flood control, (2) benefits shift from water conservation consumers to floodplain inhabitants, and (3) less net benefit is achievable. Further, we compare the status quo operating policy to a policy which stabilizes the floodplain development level and show that allowing excess (i.e. more than is optimal at the seasonal scale) flooding now preserves future water conservation benefits by disincentivizing floodplain development. Finally, we illustrate this co-evolution and its ramifications at two U.S. reservoir-floodplain systems where floodplain development has seemingly undermined hydropower production. The insights from this study are essential (though not sufficient) to achieving economically efficient use of floodplains and reservoir storage.
Bio
Kevin Wallington is a doctoral student in the department of Civil and Environmental Engineering at the University of Illinois. He received a M.S. in Civil Engineering and a B.S. in Mechanical Engineering, both from the University of Illinois. In his research, he borrows approaches from systems dynamics and control theory to analyze connected human-natural systems, for the sake of improving water resources management. His research has focused on two contexts to date: 1) during his Master’s, reservoir operation considering feedbacks with downstream floodplain development and 2) presently, watershed-scale phosphorus modelling and management considering both point and non-point sources of pollution. During his graduate study, Kevin has been a mentor for the Undergraduate Research Apprenticeship Program and MentorSHPE (Society of Hispanic Professional Engineers). He enjoys coaching, teaching, and training students and creating an environment where his mentees can thrive.
