The Bureaucratic Battlefield: Credibility and Crisis Decision-Making
Abstract:
The conventional wisdom in international politics holds that credibility — or the perceived likelihood that an actor will follow through on their commitments — is a quality that policymakers universally crave because it confers both status and material benefits which enhance one’s bargaining abilities. Indeed, according to major theories of crisis bargaining, credibility is one of the few qualities that is worth fighting for. Yet the conventional wisdom overlooks a central reality: decision-makers from different foreign policy bureaucracies do not share a common definition of either credibility or the circumstances under which credibility is worth sacrificing blood and treasure. In fact, American officials were sometimes aligned, but often divided over this question during major 20th century crises over Berlin, Taiwan, the Suez Canal, and the Balkans.
The Bureaucratic Battlefield: Credibility and Crisis Decision-Making argues that diplomatic and military organizations understand credibility differently and thus may reach different conclusions about the wisdom of using force when their country is on the brink of war. Combining a general theoretical argument with quantitative, qualitative, and survey evidence, this book breaks open the black box of the state by revealing how bureaucracy moderates when decision-makers’ credibility concerns push them toward costly conflict. In doing so, it offers fresh perspective on why civilian rather than military officials are sometimes the most hawkish voices in the room, with major implications for theories of crisis bargaining.
Bio:
An assistant professor, in the Department of Political Science, at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and a faculty affiliate with ACDIS. During the 2022-23 academic year, I was a postdoctoral research associate at Brown University's Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs. Previously, I was a Hans J. Morgenthau Fellow at the University of Notre Dame's International Security Center. I received my Ph.D. in political science from Columbia University in 2022.
I research topics at the nexus of international security and international political economy, with a particular focus on political psychology, organizational theory, and the use of historical and experimental methods. My book project uses an organizational lens to examine when and why foreign policy decision makers express concern for their state's credibility and reputation, as well as how these concerns shape bureaucrats' policy advocacy regarding the use of force during crises.