L. Ruby Leung, Atmospheric, Climate & Earth Sciences Division Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Modeling Extreme Events & Their Future Changes
Some of the most consequential outcomes of global warming for societies and ecosystems are changes in extreme events. Comparing 2000-2019 with 1980-1999, extreme temperature and flood events have more than doubled globally while the number of disastrous storms and droughts has increased by 30-50%. While the nonlinear increase in latent energy with warmer surface air temperature may explain the global increasing trends in weather extremes, credible projections of the regional changes in extreme events remain challenging. In this lecture, I will discuss some recent advances in modeling extreme events and their future changes. Using a combination of modeling approaches, I will provide examples of projections of future changes in flood-producing winter storms and their characteristics, mesoscale convective systems that produce wind damages and floods, the risk of landfalling hurricanes, and changes in heatwaves and wildfires. These projections underscore the need for adaptation planning for a weather and climate resilient society.
