Abstract
This paper exogenously imposes utility-scale solar projects on cropland to determine the effects on land allocation,
crop production, and commodity prices. We find that even in a scenario of large-scale deployment of solar farms on
cropland, the effects on commodity prices are moderate due to total crop area available. Two aspects need to be
incorporated in future analysis. First, we are currently imposing the siting of solar farms exogenously based on least
cost. There are other drivers that determine PV siting such as policies and distance to interconnection points and
demand locations. Second, climate change likely has an adverse effect on crop yields, especially in the U.S. Midwest.
Although there is discussion about the effects of technological advancements on crop yields in the future, the
magnitude of those improvements is uncertain. Thus, the decline in crop yields and supply may adversely affect crop
prices, resulting in an underestimation of the effects presented in this preliminary analysis.
The implication from our analysis is that the concerns of increased crop prices from solar farms have limited
justification. Our assessment is based on using cropland for solar installations, which is not going to occur. In reality,
solar farm siting will not occur exclusively on prime cropland but on other land types such as grassland, pastures,
and/or abandoned cropland.