Abstract
Current estimates suggest that each additional ton of carbon dioxide emitted today damages future economic outcomes by approximately $200, with human mortality being the largest single component at around 20% (Carleton, et al). Another estimate reports that 70% of climate change costs in the U.S. will be due to excess mortality by the end-of-the-century (Hsiang, et al). An unknown portion of these mortality costs is associated with blackouts—temporary outages of the U.S. Electricity Grid (“grid”). In the U.S., the primary method to mitigate adverse health effects from undesirable weather is through Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning (HVAC). Further, the diffusion of HVAC explains nearly the entirety of the temperature-morality reduction in the US (Barreca, et al). However, in a blackout, the self-protection mechanism of HVAC is inaccessible, meaning the inability to avoid weather extremes increase negative health outcomes. Given the widespread level of reliance on HVAC in the U.S., self-protectionist substitutes are also greatly restricted in a blackout. Further, the impact of a blackout event is not uniform because weather, electricity demand, electricity supply constraints, socioeconomic characteristics, and the quality of critical grid infrastructure differs across counties. Thus, we hypothesize some counties will face disproportionately higher mortality costs from blackouts, which may be further exacerbated under future climate change. To minimize the current and anticipated inequities, it is essential to understand the average human mortality costs associated with blackouts, and the heterogeneous spatial distribution of these social costs.