Research Seminars @ Illinois

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Tailored for undergraduate researchers, this calendar is a curated list of research seminars at the University of Illinois. Explore the diverse world of research and expand your knowledge through engaging sessions designed to inspire and enlighten.

To have your events added or removed from this calendar, please contact OUR at ugresearch@illinois.edu

Seminar Speaker: Professor Greg Hakim, University of Washington

Event Type
Seminar/Symposium
Sponsor
Professor Cristian Proistosescu
Location
2079 NHB
Date
Nov 12, 2024   3:30 pm  
Views
31
Originating Calendar
CliMAS colloquia

Probing the Limit of Atmospheric Predictability with Machine Learning Weather Models

Research on atmospheric predictability has historically used physics-based models, which parameterize small-scale processes that strongly influence error growth. Global machine learning (ML) models enable a transformative new approach to predictability research since they have forecast skill comparable to physics-based models at a fraction of the computational cost, and tools to take derivatives of all components of the forecast. We use these tools to map forecast errors from long forecast lead times, when they are large relative to analysis uncertainty, backward in time to the initial condition. I will present an illustrative application of the method to the Pacific Northwest heatwave of 2021, with 10-day forecast error reduced by ~90% relative to a control forecast initialized with ERA5. The generality of these results, and an estimate of the long-time limit of atmospheric predictability, will also be discussed.

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