The next C3.ai Digital Transformation Institute Colloquium on Digital Transformation Science webinar will be Thursday, September 17 at 3:00 p.m. via Zoom. Presenting "Impact of Mobility on Epidemic Spread: Some Lessons from NYC and India" will be Saurabh Amin from MIT.
Abstract: In this talk, we analyze the impact of mobility services (in particular, public transportation systems) on the spread of COVID-19. We also propose testing strategies based on mobility between areas with heterogeneous risk levels to control disease transmission. Our work focuses on two distinct regions: (1) NYC – where a significant number of people rely on the MTA for their daily commute; and (2) Odisha – an eastern state in India which saw a significant influx of migrant workers from COVID hotspots. In both regions, high levels of human mobility and limited testing capacity led to a rapid increase of COVID cases. In the study of NYC, we run panel analysis to evaluate the relative impact of MTA ridership over general mobility on the growth in cases at the zipcode level. We find strong heterogeneities across zip codes, which can be explained by socioeconomic factors and unbalanced testing resources. Importantly, we find that while a higher level of general mobility is associated with an increase in cases, the MTA usage did not lead to additional growth in cases after April. In contrast, the district-level data from Odisha exhibits strong correlation between case growth and volume of incoming migrant workers from high-risk states after May. We construct an optimization model that allows the state health authority to effectively allocate testing resources to worker populations based on the heterogeneous risk levels at their origin states and the local district population. This work is joint with Manxi Wu, Isabel Munoz, Devendra Shelar, and R. Gopalakrishnan.
The Colloquium on Digital Transformation is a series of weekly online talks on how artificial intelligence, machine learning, and big data can lead to scientific breakthroughs with large-scale societal benefit. The summer/fall series focuses on COVID-19 mitigation research.
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