Seasonal Shifts in Tropical Cyclone Activity and Wind Energy Potential
Natural variability and anthropogenic forcings can drive profound changes in the seasonality of the Earth’s climate. This two-part talk focuses on these seasonality changes and their implications for tropical cyclones (TCs) and wind energy potential. Part one leverages a multi-century dataset of TC landfalls reconstructed from historical documents and addresses the controversy around potential seasonality changes of TC activity. A comparison of pre-industrial and modern TC landfall timing suggests only a slight shift towards earlier seasonal occurrence in the modern era. We further show pronounced natural variations linked to the tropical Pacific variability and emphasize the importance of considering this variability when attributing the cause of changes in modern TC activity. Part two utilizes large-ensemble climate model simulations to investigate how warming-induced circulation changes may affect wind energy investments and energy security. The examined models project summertime wind speed decreases (stilling) of up to ~15% in Northern Midlatitudes under high-emission scenarios, driven by amplified land warming. Although this projected decrease will unlikely hurt the cost-competitiveness of wind energy relative to fossil fuels, the amplified decrease coincides with a projected surge in cooling demand in the summertime, creating a potentially compounding climate-energy risk. These findings highlight the need to integrate both long-term climate context and emerging societal needs to address climate challenges.