Igor Dubinsky, Ph.D. Candidate
Dr. Rizwan Uddin, Co-Director of Research
Dr. Clifford Singer, Co-Director of Research
April 4, 2025 | 10:00am - 12:00pm CST
This final examination will be held on Zoom.
A New Non-Proliferation Risk Model for Small Nuclear Reactors
ABSTRACT: A novel Bayesian Network Node model to assess proliferation risk in Small modular Nuclear Reactors (SMRs) is developed in this work. The model accounts for numerous risk factors and provides a key repeatable and comparative risk index for current, proposed, and future SMRs being deployed to a selected use case and country. The model utilizes Bayesian networks to create a probabilistic graphical model composed of conditional dependencies representing key nonproliferation factors. The main factors include those related to specific reactor technology, the overall facility, and the deployment location and factors are broken down into causal relationships from other nodes. In addition to the reactor itself, the country, location type, and use case application are factored into each deployment scenario’s overall risk. Bayesian network modeling is selected as a novel approach for the presented risk model, which results in a comparative risk index for current or future SMR deployments. The model is applied to eight scenarios, which demonstrates four different SMRs across a variety of inputs. It compares the deployment of a current SMR across five different countries, in different geographic regions, with various levels of nuclear experience and political stability. The risk model will contribute to ensuring nuclear security while enabling the sustainable deployment of advanced nuclear technologies.
