Thunderstorm Activity under Intermediate and Pessimistic Climate Change Scenarios: Results and Future Work
Thunderstorms are an important component of regional climates. Despite this, the influence of regional climate change on thunderstorms and their hazards is an underexplored area of research. This topic has recently been examined using a novel dataset named WRF-BCC (Weather Research and Forecasting Model – Bias Corrected CESM). These simulated data were generated by dynamically downscaling the bias-corrected Community Earth System Model (CESM) contribution to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) using WRF in a convection-permitting regional climate model configuration (CP-RCM; 3.75 km grid spacings). WRF-BCC contains 75 simulated water years (i.e., 12-month continuous integration with October restarts), comprised of five initial and boundary condition permutations simulated over the conterminous United States (CONUS) during 15-year periods—specifically, 1) two warming scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5); 2) two 21st century periods (2040 – 2055; 2085 - 2100); and 2) a retrospective period (1990 – 2005). These data have been used to examine spatiotemporal shifts in the frequency of simulated mesoscale phenomena that may potentially expose a wide range of stakeholders to impactful changes during the 21st century, including supercells, mesoscale convective systems, and winter storms. This presentation will give an overview of the WRF-BCC project, including the approach to modeling and analysis, results, and lessons learned. Finally, ongoing work that uses WRF-BCC data to train machine learning models will be discussed.
ZOOM:
https://illinois.zoom.us/j/82767407475?pwd=7ca6OfzVOPneyOwAULFkntXaYWaBvo.1
Meeting ID: 827 6740 7475
Pass Code: 809774