Rolling the Dice: The Future of Weather Disasters
Walker S. Ashley
Department of Earth, Atmosphere, and Environment, Northern Illinois University
washley@niu.edu
Recent extreme weather events and their impacts illustrate that we are increasingly vulnerable to weather hazards despite advances in science and technology. When it comes to future disasters, will societal exposure and vulnerabilities overshadow potential climate change-driven shifts in severe storm risk? What kind of severe storm impacts can we expect in a world undergoing both rapid environmental and societal change? What are some of the potential solutions to the contentious and multifaceted problem of weather and climate disaster policy?
Using the severe thunderstorm as a marker, I will examine how changes in hazard risk and societal vulnerability are driving weather disaster potential. From the physical perspective, I will summarize recent implicit and explicit numerical modeling efforts that are assessing how the climate of severe thunderstorms will change in the 21st century. From the societal perspective, I will assess where, and to what extent, growth in societal vulnerability has led to increased disaster potential and, moreover, how future developed landscape changes will influence future disaster likelihood. I will conclude with a discussion of the challenges and opportunities for reducing hazard impacts in our rapidly changing world.
