“Why Did That Idiot Do That?” An Inside and Outside Look at Decision Making Under Uncertainty
Decision making under uncertainty is a common part of life. Adding the difficulties of
- time pressure,
- asymmetric penalties for errors, and
- rarity of events for any individual
makes it an especially difficult problem. Weather forecasting and, in particularly, severe thunderstorm forecasting and response provides one of best examples of the challenges in any activity. We have people who make warning decisions, people who communicate information, and people who have to make decisions on their personal safety all interacting to make their own decisions.
To make it even more fun, these decisions are observed by people who are outside of the process and, occasionally, offer their opinions on the decisions that were made. In some cases, those opinions may convey a negative impression about the intelligence or aptitude of the decision maker.
I’ll offer some perspectives on how we can look at decision-making on a variety of levels and from a variety of fields. Some ways to try to display metrics for some aspects will be shown.
