Severe Convective Storms: Past, Present, and Future
Severe Convective Storms (SCSs) cause significant socioeconomic impacts each year, with their aggregate losses often far surpassing other types of extreme meso-γ weather phenomena. As forecast skill continues to improve—especially in the extended range—demand from stakeholders is rapidly growing for extreme weather forecasts that cover the intraseasonal (or subseasonal) window, often defined as the period spanning 2 weeks to 2 months into the future. Numerical weather prediction is typically unskillful at this lead window due to the chaotic solutions associated with time integrating a Lorenz system. Thus, empirical relationships and forced-boundary approaches are popular methodological alternatives. This seminar will highlight recent advances in such approaches as they relate to our understanding of variability and predictability of SCSs in historical and future projected climates. A “past, present, and future” seminar progression will give participants an appreciation of historical context, current topics, and future avenues for research in this area.