Atmospheric sciences colloquia

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Seminar coordinator for AY 2022-2023 is Professor Zhuo Wang,

Seminar: Angel G. Munoz

Event Type
Department of Atmospheric Sciences
2079 NHB
Feb 8, 2022   3:30 pm  

Winter Precipitation Scenarios for the Western United States: Bridging Subseasonal and Seasonal Forecasts

Decision makers in the water management sector not only require information about the total amount of precipitation, but also on how precipitation is distributed in time. In the Western United States (WUS), reliable forecasts of winter (November-March) precipitation are needed to implement a variety of water resource planning activities, involving managing water supply, quality, operational efficiency and transfers. Following an approach based on a classification of the temporal evolution of four large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns known to impact precipitation characteristics in WUS, here we present and discuss winter subseasonal precipitation scenarios for the region. These scenarios describe the typical spatial and temporal evolution of the daily winter precipitation in the region, and can be considered a way to bridge subseasonal and seasonal timescales. Following Muñoz et al (2016), a cross-validated multinomial logistic regression model is used to build probabilistic forecasts of these subseasonal precipitation scenarios. The predictive skill of the model, and the potential application for the development of climate services for the water management sector is discussed.

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