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Statistics Seminar - David Banks (Duke University) - "Adversarial Risk Analysis"

Event Type
Department of Statistics
119 Materials Science and Engineering Building
Sep 28, 2023   3:30 pm  
Originating Calendar
Department of Statistics Event Calendar

Title: Adversarial Risk Analysis

Abstract: Adversarial Risk Analysis (ARA) is a decision-theoretic alternative to game theory, applicable to corporate competition, auctions, and counterterrorism.  In ARA, one builds a model for the strategic decision making of one's opponent(s), and then places subjective Bayesian distributions over unknown quantities.  This structure enables the analyst to compartmentalize  distinct kinds  of uncertainty.  Within this framework one can use standard  Bayesian techniques to develop a probability distribution over the   actions of the opponent.  Given this distribution, the decision  theorist chooses the action that maximizes expected utility.

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