Department of Statistics Event Calendar

Title: Adversarial Risk Analysis

Abstract: Adversarial Risk Analysis (ARA) is a decision-theoretic alternative to game theory, applicable to corporate competition, auctions, and counterterrorism.  In ARA, one builds a model for the strategic decision making of one's opponent(s), and then places subjective Bayesian distributions over unknown quantities.  This structure enables the analyst to compartmentalize  distinct kinds  of uncertainty.  Within this framework one can use standard  Bayesian techniques to develop a probability distribution over the   actions of the opponent.  Given this distribution, the decision  theorist chooses the action that maximizes expected utility.