John Birge, Hobart W. Williams Distinguished Service Professor of Operations Management, University of Chicago Booth School of Business, will give a lecture on Thursday, July 23 at 3:00 p.m. via Zoom followed by a Q&A on his spatial epidemic spread model for multiple New York City neighborhoods.
Abstract: In New York City, could the use of data on individuals' movements, the level of economic activity in different neighborhoods, and knowledge about the epidemic lead to reduction in both COVID-19 spread and economic loss? Specifically, could targeted closures work? John Birge with his research colleagues Ozan Candogan of the University of Chicago and Yiding Feng of Northwestern University are developing a spatial epidemic spread model for multiple New York City neighborhoods, whose residents fall into five COVID-19 related categories: 1) susceptible, 2) exposed, 3) infected clinical, 4) infected subclinical, and 5) recovered. Putting themselves in the position of city planners who seek a framework for policies that induce the lowest economic costs, Birge, Candogan, and Feng focus on areas with small and large numbers of infections, commuting patterns across them, and information about how infections in one neighborhood can trigger infections in others. The research team's initial results indicate that targeted closures can achieve the same policy goals for disease prevention at substantially lower economic losses. They also find that coordination with neighboring counties is paramount. Contrary to what might be expected, and due to the spatial aspect of the epidemic spread, New York City neighborhoods with higher levels of infections should not necessarily be the ones exposed to the most stringent economic closure measures.
Register for the Zoom webinar.
The Colloquium on Digital Transformation Science is a weekly gathering for researchers and fellow travelers interested in how artificial intelligence, machine learning, and big data can lead to scientific breakthroughs with large-scale societal benefit. This summer and fall, every Thursday afternoon, we will focus on COVID-19 mitigation research. See details of upcoming talks.
