Temperate forests are under increasing stress from rising temperatures and variable precipitation. Currently, tree species can respond to climate change by shifting geographical ranges to track historical climates or adapt to tolerate new climates. Plants rely on soil microbial communities to achieve processes such as drought tolerance and nutrient acquisition. Tolerance to climate change may be achieved through soil microbial partners. We investigated the soil microbial influence on individual and community level changes of temperate forest responses to drought conditions. At the individual level, historically drier microbial communities may provide trees with resistance to drought conditions. At the community level, in drought conditions, mycorrhizal functional guilds form a positive demographic feedback with its own guild resisting community composition changes. Accurately predicting plant responses and distributions in future climates will require an understanding of the ecological dynamics with soil microbes.